Flame Lily News and Views

I think the most significant contribution to the Zimbabwe debate came from a South Africa ANC stalwart, Kamal, last week.  In a speech delivered in South Africa, he stated that the democrats who have struggled so long to secure democratic rights and practices in Zimbabwe and who clearly won the last election despite irregularities, must not be abandoned.  He called on other countries, including his own, to support the struggle for democracy in Zimbabwe.

A careful review of all that has gone on in the past 10 days will show that Mr.  Mbeki constructed a trap for Morgan Tsvangirai, working in the final throws of the negotiations with both Mugabe and Mutambara in the process.  On Tuesday last week Morgan walked into the final negotiating session in Harare and was presented with an agreement that had already been approved by both Mugabe and Mutambara.  He was asked to sign and was told that the deal offered an end to the long nightmare of struggle and suffering for himself, his family and his country.

He asked for time out to discuss it with his colleagues and after a period brought back to the gathering a counter proposal.  The changes were small but made all the difference.  In the first document Mbeki and the others offered Tsvangirai the post of Prime Minister, but to be appointed by the President (Mugabe) and not allowed to chair cabinet - taking responsibility for all the ministries that Mugabe could not give a damn about - finance, education, health, labour and social welfare.  It not only recognised Mugabe’s election on the 27th June under appalling conditions but also left him in power with all his current privileges and rights.  MDC would hold 13 of a 31-seat cabinet; Mutambara and Welshman Ncube, both heavily defeated in the March
29th election would be rewarded with non-elected posts and a significant role.

The MDC counter proposal was totally consistent with the Parties position from day one.  It said that the results of the March 29th election had to be respected in all aspects.  That Parliament should appoint both the President and the Prime Minister.  It established a system that allowed Mugabe to remain as President but with diminished power and responsibility.  He would still be Commander in Chief of the Armed forces.  The Prime Minister would have all the powers and responsibilities that are normally associated with such a post in other countries.

The trap lay in what Mugabe then expected to happen; he had always known that this was the key issue and that the MDC would never accept such a proposal.  So he carefully plotted with Mutambara to go for a deal that excluded Tsvangirai and his Party, forming a Government with the Mutambara faction of the MDC based on the deal negotiated over the past 18 months with both the MDC groups but with the variation outlined above.

When the MDC rejected the deal and demanded that it be amended to reflect the changes suggested, they fully expected Mbeki to go along with the subterfuge.  In fact he did not immediately do so - he advised them that a deal that was not signed by Tsvangirai would have little weight in international and African circles and that he would take the final areas of dispute to the SADC for arbitration.

First stop in that process was Angola, “that haven of democratic process” that is yet to hold an election for its own leadership.  Angola held the Chair of the SADC organ on Security and Politics.  Then he returned to South Africa to prepare for the SADC summit due to take place in Johannesburg that weekend.

At the summit the South Africans gave all participants a full written report on the discussions that had taken place since March 2007.  This included the draft constitution crafted in the discussions and signed by all parties at the Kariba meeting in September.  You should know that we, the people of Zimbabwe, who are most affected by all this, have yet to see these same documents.

Mr.  Mbeki, acting as the new Chairman of the SADC and as the official mediator, told the grouping that the agreements reached represented a “power sharing deal” that was fair to all parties and should be signed.  Although the MDC was represented at the meeting by a high powered delegation, they were not allowed to address the leadership of the SADC and Mugabe was allowed to sit in his allotted seat as President of Zimbabwe, even though he has no right to do so and his election in June is not recognised by the great majority of the SADC and other African States.  Only Botswana said they would not attend if he were given recognition.

At the conclusion of the SADC meeting Mugabe had just about all he could have wanted - the majority of the SADC had accepted him as President, they had told the MDC that their refusal to sign the power sharing deal was unreasonable, and left it to a weak and indecisive Mbeki to carry on with his mediation.  Tsvangirai, in a desperate attempt to rescue the talks visited a number of countries in the immediate aftermath and then returned to South Africa.  To no avail.  No substantive help or support has emerged for a final agreement.

Mugabe, encouraged by a call by Mbeki for Parliament to be convened and by the lack luster approach of the SADC leadership, has set about doing just that.  Mutambara has reiterated his stance that the deal is reasonable and declared they are going to cooperate in Parliament.  Zanu and the Mutambara leadership have selected a candidate for Speaker - Paul Temba Nyathi, who will stand for this post on Monday.  Threats have been made against any Mutambara people who might vote against him and for the MDC candidate.

It is a dangerous move - if Mbeki fails to endorse the arrangements then Mugabe and Mutambara are acting alone and without the formal endorsement of the SADC.  If they lose the Speaker battle (and they could) then we are in for a period when they might not be able to pass legislation and budgets to run the government.  They are also running the risk of total alienation from the electorate and if they cannot pay the armed forces at the end of the month (and I cannot see how they can) then they run the risk that the armed forces might take matters into their own hands.

We in the MDC have said since 2000, that we want a peaceful, orderly, legal and democratic transfer of power in Zimbabwe.  We have fought 4 elections on this premise, been subjected to campaigns of terror and abuse on a massive scale, seen hundreds of our leaders murdered and thousands beaten and tortured.  We have been subjected to continuous propaganda, have campaigned under grossly unequal conditions and voted in a system that has been manipulated and distorted by a corrupt and totalitarian regime.

Yet despite all the provocation we have not raised a finger in support of violence.  When our members have demanded a violent response, we have restrained them.  When an armed struggle has been proposed, we have rejected the proposals and repudiated the people who made them.  Despite all of this we won the March 29th election - because we were able to secure minimal improvements in the way they were conducted.  We still believe that 60 per cent of the Zanu seats were won by means of rigging.

Now - at the final hurdle, we are told that we are being unreasonable in demanding recognition for what we are - a Party that has won the right to govern.  We are prepared for the sake of a peaceful transition to work together with Zanu on a transition back to democracy in two years and to share power in the transition even though Zanu does not deserve this.  South Africa will pay a high price for this dereliction of duty when it mattered most.

Eddie Cross
Bulawayo, 23rd August 2008

We never said it would be easy - yesterday and 14 hours of intense negotiation and still no agreement.  The talks resumed this morning and it is quite clear that Morgan Tsvangirai is holding the line on the demand that the MDC emerge from these talks with a mandate to form the next government and to control the State with effect from the 1st of September.

In the final analysis this is a straight fight between Thabo Mbeki and Zanu PF - the former has to secure an agreement that is acceptable to the MDC and also to the international community.  The MDC has to accept the deal if it is to secure the approval of the general population and the latter if the international community is to then agree to fund the stabilisation and recovery of the Zimbabwe economy.

The position of Zanu PF has always been quite clear - if they accept such a deal it means two years of working with the MDC in a junior capacity - with the MDC holding the reins of power and then at the end of the transitional period facing an election under free and fair conditions with a free press, no violence or intimidation, an independent election commission and international observers.

In such an electoral process it is likely that Zanu PF would cease to exist as a political party - at least in the House of Assembly and perhaps in all local government Councils.  Like the National Party in South Africa at best they would end up as a minor player.  More immediately and of great concern to all of their leadership and many hundreds of others, they would face a independent Judicial system and possible prosecution for either human rights abuse, political violence and murder or corruption.

When viewed like that this always was going to be a power game.  After all that is politics.  We will know today what the outcome has been and I remain convinced that Mr.  Mbeki will have to get a deal - he simply cannot go back to South Africa without agreement and must therefore use his very considerable power as President of South Africa, to force Zanu PF to accept its fate.

What happens if he fails?  That has always been a possibility - many have said a probability.  Those skeptics have argued that he simply does not have what it takes to exercise power at this level.  That he does not have the moral authority or the leverage to force compliance.  I disagree - he has always had the power to do so and has chosen not to use it up to now.  I agree with Tony Leon when he said on SA television this morning that this thing could have been fixed 8 years ago and the long nightmare of the past decade avoided.  But that is easier said than done.  Right now its high noon on Main Street.

If he fails this test then what happens to the rest of us?  If I was on the Zanu side I would not come out of this with any optimism - if anything I would be tempted to start to pack my bags and leave.  If they do not sign today, Zanu PF is really finished.  They have no legitimacy; their administration will not be accepted by anybody of significance.  The SADC and possibly the AU will ostracize them.  Sanctions will be further tightened on their leadership and the collapse of the economy will continue - eventually making it nearly impossible to live here.

Millions will flee to other countries - 80 per cent to South Africa where they will destabilize a fragile social system and security.  The local security forces will disintegrate, eventually threatening the security of what remains of the regime.  Capital will flee the country and little or no investment will come in to replace it and starvation and hunger will haunt what remains of the local population.

Most commentators would predict that the regime could not last more than a few months under such conditions.  I am inclined to agree but we could simply slide into anarchy and chaos with Zimbabwe becoming a pitiful failed State of the worst kind - unable to feed or care for the majority of the people and only a small minority remaining at home.

What are the chances of a violent end to the regime - in this country I think minimal.  We do not have any neighbors who might allow bases for an armed rebellion, we have no arms and even if the armed forces took matters into their own hands the result would not be recognised or accepted.  It would be futile.  Biti was about right when he was asked what MDC would do if they could not get what they wanted - he replied “we would let them stew in their own juices”.

What if Mbeki does put his foot down and gets a deal?  Then I would expect the leaders to clear the deal with their respective parties and then a final agreement to be prepared and ready for signing in South Africa at the SADC summit on Saturday.  After that we would have the opening of Parliament on the following Wednesday followed by the House voting on the legislation to give effect to the agreement and then the new Government being appointed by the 1st of September.

If the transitional arrangements are acceptable to the international community then I would expect things to happen quite fast - by the end of September the basic outline of things to come would be in place - the Reserve Bank would have acted to start to stabilize the economic and monetary system, the emergency programme to get recovery under way would be in place and people should begin to see real things happening on the ground.

In six months I would expect inflation to be down to single digits and the economy should start to exhibit real growth for the first time since 1998. The dollar will strengthen and exports begin to recover.  Investment inflows would be positive - again for the first time in a decade and tourism would begin.  The contrast between these two scenarios is so great that I find it difficult to believe that Mr.  Mbeki can do anything behind those closed doors in Harare except tell the Zanu delegation that their future is sealed and they have no option but to sign.

Eddie Cross
Bulawayo, 11th August 2008

By Eddie Cross

Because of the complete embargo on what is going on at the talks we have very little information.  However there was one leak which basically said that Zanu PF had tabled a demand that the status quo prevail, Mugabe remains President until he finishes his 5 year term but that MDC join a Zanu PF led government with Morgan Tsvangirai as one of three vice Presidents.

I can only assume that when they did that the MDC simply said that there was no point in continuing with the dialogue and walked out.  Mr  Mbeki was at pains to say that the talks were going well and there was no impasse but I think that was purely for public consumption - in fact the deadlock was not resolved for a week and the talks only resumed on Sunday.  A week was wasted as a result and the mediators had to intervene and get the problem sorted out.

Clearly it was sorted out or the talks would not have resumed.  Last night a journalist on the Star newspaper in South Africa informed us that he had a draft agreement - all 50 pages of it and that this showed what was on the table.  I have looked at the article this morning and it appears to be a draft proposal from the mediators to both Parties.

The draft has a titular Presidency - occupied by Mugabe, an executive Prime Minister - to be Morgan Tsvangirai, with two deputies - one from Zanu and one from MDC.  One aspect that will prove difficult is a blanket amnesty for all who have committed human rights violations in the past.  That will be a tough call to make - especially as we have thugs still inflicting terrible injuries on people and the State withholding food from the people - itself a recognised crime against humanity.

The Star reports that Mbeki is traveling to Harare to hold talks with the main principals on the draft.  These talks are expected in the next day or so - then the final draft will go to the Parties for their OK and then to the SADC summit on the 16th August - after that I would expect Parliament to be called and for the required legislation to be passed and the process of implementation started.

These developments are totally consistent with what we have felt were the fundamentals - the final deal may well stick in our collective gullets but so long as the MDC takes the drivers seat and is clearly in control, we should be able to live with it.  Talks are taking place on the sidelines to decide what will happen to the key players in the present regime. This collection of monsters should in fact simply go from their offices to the ICC in the Hague. Then what about corruption?

Despite the talks, the regime has still not lifted the ban of the distribution of food aid - some 200 000 tonnes of aid are locked up in warehouses around the country.  More is stored at the Ports and still more is at sea and due to arrive shortly.  The NGO’s who have been handling this vast operation (feeding nearly 5 million people) have all been idle - staff on full pay and doing nothing for two months.  The suffering among the people is horrific - many children and elderly are dying from hunger.

To me this is a clear crime against humanity and should be treated as such. Goche - the Minister responsible should be told that if the ban is not lifted immediately he would be the subject of an ICC prosecution.  I am sure that would get his attention.  With the UN as one of the mediator team, this should not be difficult.

While all this is going on the Zimbabwe economy continues its downward spiral.  Inflation is running at 18 million per cent.  It is difficult to maintain any sort of understanding of what that means in the markets. Somehow the informal sector keeps up and they seem to know, almost by osmosis, what prices and exchange rates are doing.  Many people are simply working in US dollars or Rand.  Business that relies on the local markets is not coping and many are almost closed down.

In tandem with the rapid inflation in prices, all services are in a very poor state.  Urban roads have all but collapsed, water supplies in the urban centers are very short and their quality dubious.  Public transport is very expensive and in short supply while all basic foods are virtually unobtainable.  Our schools and hospitals are barely functioning and hundreds of thousands of our people are on the move to greener pastures.

The decision last week to chop another 10 zero’s off our currency and to issue a new currency was simply an act of desperation.  The Reserve Bank had run out of paper to print money and had no choice but to issue the new notes - manufactured actually in 2006, to meet the demand for cash.  They brought back the coins - suddenly everyone was scrambling to find the coins they had in every drawer.

I guess that will last a week and the new currency will be totally devalued in a month.  What does Gono do then?  Rumor has it he has decided to retire - not a day too soon in my book.  But he better retire somewhere far away and very quiet, because you can be sure, his recent past is going to catch up with him.

Eddie Cross Bulawayo,
7th July 2008