Flame Lily News and Views

In a recent meeting with diplomats, faced with serious concerns about the workability of the arrangements negotiated with Zanu PF, Morgan Tsvangirai laughingly said “this new government is like a union between a donkey and a horse, it could produce a mule - not very pretty, but functional”.  One of the diplomats responded that mules are sterile - they cannot reproduce themselves.  That is probably just as well!

Because the deal has not yet been even consummated, we do not have the beginnings, so no progress.  I understand that Mr.  Mugabe came back from his trip to the UN General Assembly in New York this morning.  It had been rumored that he was not due in until next Friday; so that is progress.  Now we need to get things moving so that a new government can be sworn by next weekend and we can finally start work.

The one thing that observers are generally failing to see in this situation is that the swearing in of a new Cabinet and government will in fact signal the end of the Zanu PF Junta.  Over the past ten years we have seen a gradual shift from Cabinet government to rule by a civilian/military junta.  This Junta remains firmly in charge today and is working at fever pitch to sweep their tracks and secure a last minute meal at the nations expense.  I think they have now accepted that their time in control is nearly over and that the SADC process has gone too far to be reversed.

Once a Cabinet is sworn in and Morgan Tsvangirai becomes Prime Minister with responsibility for supervising and managing all government Ministries, we will again be governed by a more conventional government system - power and control will shift from the Junta to the Cabinet where it actually belongs.

The effectiveness of the new arrangements will then depend on our ability to mould the new team into a cohesive whole that will work together to put the country back onto its feet.  Given our recent history, that will not be easy - but at the same time its not impossible.  We have many advantages over other States that have had to try and bring their countries back into the mainstream of development after conflict and decline.  We have not been swept by violence and armed insurrection.  Our armed forces, remain generally disciplined and professional, they will take orders.  Our economy is in tatters and dangerously close to complete collapse, but the fundamentals are all there.

If we finally get this deal consummated, MDC will have very largely achieved what it set out to achieve 9 years ago - a peaceful, legal and democratic transfer of power to a new government that can effect fundamental change in the way our affairs are run.  Sure we have had to compromise and share power with Zanu PF and the transfer has only come about because our neighbors have helped us hammer out a deal that enables us to work together during the transition, but once the new team is in place and starts work, we can say that power is once more in democratic hands and has been wrested from a military dominated Junta that was destroying our country.

This past week we have been trying to meet all stakeholders in an effort to try and find out what are the fundamental problems and concerns of the people who make things happen in Zimbabwe.  A team led by the Prime Minister designate has met the food industry, the bankers, the mining industry leadership and the combined farmers unions.  It is not a pretty picture.

The food people told us they have insufficient stocks to feed the country, that the capacity to finance and physically import the quantities needed to prevent starvation and hardship were just not available.  Industrialists told us they were working at 10 per cent of their capacity and could not fund the necessary recovery in their activity if the wider economy was stabilized and returned to growth.  The miners said that three quarters of all gold mines were closed and overall the industry was operating at 20 per cent of capacity.  The bankers said they feared for their staff as crowds of people gathered at all banking halls and ATM’s in a desperate effort to gain access to their funds as inflation, now at over a billion per cent per annum, simply destroyed their savings and salaries while they stood in queues.

Farmers pleaded for security on their farms and the return of the rule of law and said that with 4 weeks to go to the annual planting season, only 5 per cent of the necessary inputs for the new crop were in place.  They told us that if nothing was done about this, yet another year of shortages and hunger would be inevitable in 2009 with no chance of relief until 2010.  A delegation from the cities told us that water shortages were now critical - that public health and sanitation were in jeopardy throughout the country. Teachers told us that virtually no real teaching was going on in schools and that many students would simply have to repeat the year to get back on track.

Despite the daunting and stark conditions confronting all sectors of our economy and society we were encouraged as, sector by sector, leadership pledged themselves to help us get out of this mess as quickly as possible. Just yesterday I was with a team who were working on what to do in the first 100 days of the new administration.  How to improve services and stabilise the economy.  How to get Zimbabwe working again.

Can we do it?  Yes we can!  Mules may not be pretty but they can work and work effectively.  But we have to demonstrate that before a skeptical and wary world.  We also have to try and meet the needs and aspirations of the millions of our people who have patiently supported us and fought with us in what has been a principled and non-violent democratic struggle to regain our freedoms.  We are nearly there.

Eddie Cross Bulawayo,
28th September 2008

Nine years to the day since I stood with Morgan Tsvangirai, Gibson Sibanda, Tendai Biti, Welshman Ncube and many other patriots on the 11th September 1999 at Rufaro Stadium to launch the MDC a deal has been agreed in Harare tonight to bring to an end 28 years of brutal Zanu PF rule.

The bare bones of the deal are as follows.  Constitutional amendment 19 will shortly be moved in Parliament.  It will enable to the setting up of an inclusive Government which in turn will initiate an all inclusive process of Constitutional reform (which will include civil society).  That process will last 18 months by which time a new democratic Constitution must be implemented, which will also include a time frame for new elections at some point to be conducted in terms of the new Constitution.

The inclusive Government will have Robert Mugabe as President with greatly reduced powers to those he enjoys today.  There will be two, largely ceremonial, Vice Presidents from Zanu PF.  Morgan Tsvangirai will be Prime Minister.  Although he does not have absolute power he does have substantial power.  For example he will advise Mugabe on all future appointments including Judges, Ambassadors and the like.  There will be two Deputy Prime Ministers, one from MDC T and one from MDC M.

There will be a slightly cumbersome arrangement for conducting Government business which is the essence of the compromise agreed to following the impasse of the last 4 weeks.  Cabinet will be chaired by Mugabe; Tsvangirai will be the vice Chair.  Then there will be a Council of Ministers chaired by Tsvangirai which will supervise the work of Cabinet.

The Cabinet will largely reflect the votes cast for the different parties in the March election in which Zanu PF got the most votes (if not the most seats), followed by the MDC T and MDC M.  In a 31 person Cabinet Zanu PF will have 15 seats, MDC T 13 and MDC M 3.  There will be 8, 6 and 1 Deputy Ministers respectively.  Accordingly if the two MDC factions work together, which they must in the national interest, they will enjoy a majority in Cabinet.

This is undoubtedly historic but we still have a long and treacherous road to travel.  Even had we in the combined MDC obtained total control the challenges are immense.  The grave humanitarian and economic crises are enough to test any Government.  The new Cabinet that will have to address these challenges is composed of protagonists - virtually all of the Cabinet Ministers to be appointed by the MDC T and M have at some stage in the last 9 years been brutalized on the instructions of those they will now have to work with.  Zimbabwe remains highly polarised and it will take statesmanship on all sides to make this work.

But work this must.  Zimbabwe is a great country with a tremendous future and it can and will get through to a new dawn of freedom.  The night is not over yet but as the great poet Arthur Hugh Clough wrote:

“In front the sun climbs slow, how slowly, But westward look , the land is bright”.

Winston Churchill said after the Battle of Egypt on the 10 November 1942 the following memorable words:

“Now is not the end.  It is not even the beginning of the end.  But it is perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

Those words are apt today.  This has been a long hard struggle and there have been many casualties.  It is not over yet - there are many battles which still lie ahead - but I am confident that this agreement, imperfect as it is, marks a significant step forward and will ultimately yield a new, democratic, vibrant jewel in Africa - our great Zimbabwe!

God bless you all and God bless Zimbabwe.

Senator David Coltart

Bulawayo
11th September 2008

Today the new Zimbabwe currency devalued to one South African cent.  Issued just a month ago at parity with the Rand, it was a desperate move by the regime in Harare to try and meet the demand for cash in an environment where the local currency is halving in values every week or less.
Even though we have no less than five sets of currency in circulation - the new notes, the bearer bonds, the agric cheques and two different sets of coinage, there is still a huge shortage of local currency.  Businesses with cash are selling their surplus on the market at up to a 50 per cent premium.
Bankers and the Reserve Bank are also selling cash and buying foreign exchange on the parallel market.
In fact to the uninitiated the situation here can be quite bewildering - just take today for example.  The US dollar was trading at Z$1334 per dollar at the so-called “Old Mutual Rate”.  The “RTGS” rate was about Z$850 to 1. The street rate was Z$200 to 1.  The interbank rate was slightly higher and the “official rate” was Z$0,0000003 of a local dollar to one US dollar.
Then today we tried to buy some fabric from a local firm - 100 per cent cotton, locally manufactured and dyed - they quoted me Z$6060 per Metre or US3,10 - at that rate the exchange rate was 1955 to one US dollar.  That is 10 times the street rate.
So if I was able to get an allocation of foreign exchange from the Reserve Bank at the “Official” rate, US$100 000 would cost me 30 Zimbabwean cents.
If I sold the US$100 000 on the local market at the RTGS rate I would earn Z$85 million.  If I then bought US dollars on the free market in Zimbabwe I would be able to buy US$425 000.  This is what we call “Gononomics”.
But if you were a worker in a clothing factory, your weekly wage would be about Z$200 - and a 300 mls Coke would cost you Z$1 800 - you would have to work for 9 weeks to buy a cold coke!
Last month the militias were paid Z$3 trillion - that is 30 cents in the new currency.  Worth a fortune in the hands of Grace Mugabe but not worth a dime in the markets in which they have to live.  They are going to have to print currency and “create” currency through the Reserve Bank by simply issuing cheques or even just a credit for an account in order to pay the army - but the army will not be able to get hard cash and therefore cannot spend the money they get until it is worthless.
How you function in such a crazy environment I simply do not know.
Eddie Cross
Bulawayo, 1st September 2008