Flame Lily News and Views

Nothing could illustrate the failure of African leadership more clearly than the farce that took place in Harare this weekend.  Following the debacle last week when Morgan Tsvangirai refused to travel on an emergency travel document restricted to Swaziland, the SADC organ on politics and security convened in Harare this Monday.  It was attended by the Presidents of South Africa and Mozambique as well as the Prime Minister of Swaziland and an official from Angola.

They know exactly what the problem is - in March the MDC beat Zanu PF in a closely contested election and its leader, Morgan Tsvangirai beat Mugabe by a wide margin.  These leaders know that Morgan got more than 50 per cent of the vote - I understand his actual vote was 54 per cent but after five weeks of procrastination and desperate efforts to falsify the poll the Junta was forced to admit that Mugabe had been beaten but that Tsvangirai had received less than 50 per cent and would have to face a run off.

The South Africans know full well that the real result was a clear victory for MDC and a humiliation for Mugabe, but went along with the charade and allowed the run off to take place.  What followed was three months of intense political violence unleashed on the population by 100 000 youth militia under military leadership in over 2000 camps spread throughout the country.

When finally it became apparent that any attempt by the MDC to monitor the election would be faced with violence and even the murder of MDC polling agents, the MDC decided to pull out of the contest.  Zanu PF went ahead and in complete contrast to the March election, Mugabe was declared the winner in 48 hours and sworn in, in unseemly haste.

The African observer missions then turned Zanu’s world upside down by declaring that the election had “not been a reflection of the people’s will” and stating that Mugabe had not been elected President.  Battered and bruised, the MDC and the hapless electorate picked themselves up and were then faced with a demand by SADC leaders that they “resume” the talks with Zanu PF under the mediation of Thabo Mbeki.

Mbeki picked up from where his previous mediation had left off, as if nothing had happened in the interim.  We are now four months down the road on that new initiative and having agreed and signed a power sharing agreement on the 15th September; we are still trying to get the deal implemented.  In signing the deal, the MDC massively compromised its rights as the Party that had won the elections outright in March.

Mugabe, who by all accounts lost the election in March and certainly has no legal or democratic justification to call himself President, continues to act as if he had won the election and Hansard still lists all Zanu PF ministers and Deputy Ministers as Ministers of Government.  No doubt they are still on their full salaries and perks even though a number of them were defeated by MDC in the election in March and all of them were stood down as Ministers when Parliament was sworn in a few weeks ago.

Just to compound this situation Mugabe is treated as a State President by SADC and given full political and diplomatic recognition.  The so called “Global Agreement” provides for a clear separation of powers between the Prime Minister and the President and also sets out in precise terms how the different arms of government are expected to work together.

Only an idiot could interpret the agreement as meaning that Zanu PF is still in charge and MDC is the junior partner, It is self evident that the allocation of ministerial portfolios should be divided equitably, So when, after weeks of pointless argument Zanu PF published an allocation of Ministerial portfolios that gave Zanu PF complete control of the security machinery of the state as well as all resource ministries and left the rest to the MDC, it was a step too far.

That brought the region back into the process and gave us the hope that the regional leadership would recognise the illogical and unacceptable nature os such an allocation and impose a solution on the local players that made sense.  First it was Mbeki and he made a hash of things - actually endorsing the Zanu PF allocation of posts!  Then came the Troika and the aborted meeting in Swaziland.

Morgan had raised the issue of his passport with the negotiators and when he was issued with a Emergency Travel Document with a single destination restriction he refused to travel.  In fact the issue goes far beyond just the question of withholding his travel documents (the passport has been ready for weeks and is sitting in the desk of the Registrar General) it was just the latest of a series of incidents that show that the Junta in Harare has no intention of allowing the new government to be formed.

They are continuing to restrict and interfere with food distribution by the international community.  They have retained tight control over commercial food distribution.  The security forces continue to attack any attempts by civil society to support the negotiation process and the media is as warped and restricted as ever.  There has been no attempt to implement the “Global Agreement” in any form up to now.

When Morgan Tsvangirai failed to attend the Troika meeting it was aborted and reorganised for Harare a week later.  In Harare the key player was always going to be the new President of South Africa, Mr.  Motlanthe.  This was his first real test when it comes to foreign affairs and for most of us it seemed completely logical that he would step up to the plate and smash a home run.

But no - after 13 hours of intense “negotiations” they came out of the closet and issued a statement that did not change one single element in the situation.  The issue would go a full meeting of SADC Heads of State in two weeks time.  What an even larger group of hopeless leaders will do is difficult to imagine.  The key player remains Motlanthe, he alone has the power and influence to force a resolution and it just that that is required.
The Junta will never give up power without the use of force in whatever form and if that is not going to come from the streets, it has to come diplomatically behind closed doors.

In 1976 that pressure came from the South Africans in support of an initiative by the American Secretary of State, in 1979 it was pressure from Mozambique, Zambia and Tanzania.  The only question now is who will do the necessary in 2008?

While this charade is being played out, southern Africa burns.  In the midst of the global financial crisis, we look indecisive and ineffective.  By failing to take crucial decisions on issues such as inter Party violence in South Africa and the resolution of the crisis in Zimbabwe - all within our own clear competence, we are failing our respective countries, the region and our people’s best interests.

It was up to the Secretary General of the United Nations to spell out what was needed.  He called for an equitable allocation of Ministerial portfolios and the formation of a new government in Harare as soon as possible.  He said that only such a move would bring the political and economic crisis under control.  He is right, are our leaders up to it this time?  Failure is just that would be “too ghastly to contemplate”.

Eddie Cross
Bulawayo, 28th October 2008

If this were a John Wayne movie we would be about to see the good guy walk down the main street against the bad guys who were going to confront him and to try to ambush him from the side streets and buildings.  Morgan has agreed to attend the SADC summit on Monday and the stakes could not be higher.

It has puzzled us as to why the bad guys had delayed this confrontation.  We now know that they had hoped to be able to spring a surprise election on the MDC rather than face the prospect of their man (Mugabe) having to face our man (Tsvangirai) in direct combat on the street.  A shadowy group, listed in a fascinating article by Charamba in last weekends Herald newspaper, has been attempting to engineer a snap election using the mechanism that was put in place for the June run off that ended so disastrously for Zanu PF.  More than most commentators, they had recognised the dangers to them of the SADC brokered agreement.

This attempt spluttered out when they realised that the new South African government would not tolerate that option - it was only one better than the option of a military coup and in regional terms simply not acceptable.  While they quibbled and played for time, what they did not appreciate was that the ship on which they were standing was in fact sinking.  The consequences of their own actions are destroying the very foundations of the system on which they rely for continued power and sustenance.

The most obvious symptom of this process is the rapid collapse of the Zimbabwe currency.  Issued just three months ago at parity with the Rand and 7 to 1 with the US dollar, yesterday it traded at billions to one US dollar and there seemed to be no bottom to the pit in which it was sinking.  It has become virtually impossible to trade in the local currency and I would not be surprised if people simply stop trading.

There are signs that the South Africans are at last prepared to insist on a deal on Monday.  The reasons are many but in my view the following are the principle elements in this change of heart.

The first, and possibly the most important is the change of leadership in South Africa.  Mbeki has been consigned to a retirement home and the new leadership - Kegalema Motlanthe and Jacob Zuma are hardly friends of Robert Mugabe.  The new President of South Africa was the leader of a Cosatu delegation to Zimbabwe that was hauled off a South African airplane about three years ago, pushed into a minibus and driven to the Beitbridge border post where they were deported and had to be collected by a car sent up from Johannesburg.

Last week Zuma and Motlanthe both made statements calling for a speedy resolution of the Zimbabwe crisis by the completion of the process of forming a new government.  South Africa is the only country in the world with the power to tell Mugabe what he may or may not do.  If they decide that the time has come for a solution, a solution will be found.  They are probably quite happy that such a solution was not secured under Mbeki’s watch as the two ANC groups are now engaged in their own struggle in South Africa.

The second reason is one that has been there for a long time, but has been made more relevant and pressing by recent events.  It is the regional implications of the economic collapse in Zimbabwe.

Of all the consequences of this collapse, the one most directly affecting the South African government are the tens of thousands of people who are pouring over the border into the crowded squatter camps that surround every City.  It is visible on every street corner and every person living in South Africa pays a price for this unwanted invasion.  Given the present situation in Zimbabwe, if a deal is not reached on Monday the stream of people fleeing to South Africa will become a floodtide that could simply swamp their delicate democracy.

The next is the impact on regional business sentiment and international confidence in African leadership and enterprise.  The Rand fell to 12 to 1 yesterday - losing over half its value in a few days.  The stock market has also lost half its value over the past 3 months.  I know the reasons for this are the international credit crunch and its consequences but it does not help to be seen in a region of possible political and economic instability on top of everything else.  A deal in Zimbabwe might actually help the South Africans to defend themselves against the rising tide of global recession that now seems unstoppable.

Adding to this situation is the growing evidence of the criminal nature of the regime in Zimbabwe.  We are engaged in every possible activity of a criminal nature in the region.  Nothing illustrates that more than the illegal diamond trade.  In recent weeks the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe has been offloading raw diamonds on the international market in large quantities, these carry false certificates of origin and are from Angola, the Congo and the newly discovered Maranke diamond fields in eastern Zimbabwe.  The proceeds of this trade are not being returned to Zimbabwe and add to the increasing flow of funds being siphoned out of the country by a frightened oligarchy that now knows their days are numbered.  This illicit trade constitutes a threat to both South African and Botswana interests as it violates the Kimberly Process.

Back home, the regime has paid the civil service for the month of October.  I understand the Police were paid Z$100 000.  When you know that it will take days to draw that kind of money out of the Bank and that bread is now Z$50 000 a loaf and the real value of their salaries is less than 0,000007 of a US cent, you can understand why the regime cannot rely on the military or the police for protection.  Prices are doubling daily now and no one is able to survive on local currency or a salary.

So Monday may be “D” day - decision time for us and disaster time for them. If a deal is done and we get a new government it will take a few days to appoint ministers and then get going but at least then we will at last be able to tackle the many urgent problems that we have inherited from 28 years of tyrannical and corrupt rule.

Eddie Cross
Bulawayo, 25th October 2008

Today I went from one meeting to another using the main streets in Harare - it was pure chaos.  The City had no electricity, the traffic lights at all intersections were not working and the traffic was gridlocked.  The Police were nowhere to be seen and even as we sat in the traffic a police car drove past - ramped the pavement and drove though the intersection paying no attention to what was going on around them.

At the Reserve Bank it was the same.  They are printing money and creating money in other forms so fast that the inflation rate is no longer calculable.  What we do know is that the RTGS rate - that is the rate at which foreign exchange is exchanged in the open market for money transferred by electronic means is moving by the hour.  At the beginning of August it was 7 to 1 against the US dollar (after we dropped 9 zeros [actually 10]) and yesterday it was 2 000 000 to 1.  Quite a change in 8 weeks!  At this rate it will be no less than 10 million to one by next weekend.

Desperate people are queuing for days at the banks and other financial houses to try and get their money out of the system so that they can spend it before it literally melts to nothing.  In Gweru last week the main street was almost closed by crowds at ATM’s and banks.  In Harare literally thousands of people jam every cash outlet.  The maximum withdrawal by an individual is $20 000 a day worth US$ 0,001 cents.

The Reserve Bank, faced with the escalating consequences of their own ineptitude are now printing money on plain local bond paper with no security features.  The mafia are having a field day and so many counterfeit notes are circulating that people are refusing the new notes.  Instead of adopting a carefully crafted plan to overcome these problems and to correct the fundamentals that are driving the system towards collapse, the Governor today simply closed down the RTGS system and I understand even the inter bank system; rendering the only alternative window for payments impassable.

It is illegal to trade in hard currency - you can go to jail for this if you try, it is illegal to change money on the street, you cannot charge a market price for what you sell unless you are willing to risk intervention or worse.  Even today there were reports of the government taking action against retailers who were “over charging”.  Business is unable to pay their staff in cash, they pay them by bank transfer and then watch as half their work force is absent all day standing in queues.

Non cash forms of payments are rampant - barter is common, the use of fuel coupons with a face value of about US$30 each is also common tender.  The BBC carried a story this week of an auction in Harare where the bids were all expressed in coupons.  Most firms are now being forced to sell their goods and services in hard currency - Rand or US dollars even though it is illegal.

Businesses do not bank the money because the Reserve Bank keeps a close watch on any foreign exchange balances in the Banks and simply expropriates them.  Crediting the owner of these accounts with local currency at a ridiculous rate of exchange and then using the flow of hard currency to support the life styles of the small elite that is still in charge.  At these rates of exchange a luxury, top of the range car costs less than the price of a local cigarette.

Here we are, 4 weeks away from the start of the wet season and we have 2 per cent of our fertilizer requirements in stock.  All other inputs are virtually unobtainable.  The Reserve Bank is handing out expensive farm equipment to Zanu PF fat cats like sweets to a kindergarden, but they cannot provide fuel or seed or fertilizer or chemicals.  It’s madness.

Remaining farmers - black and white are being evicted from their farms by Zanu PF heavies such as a Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank and what is left of the once world class tobacco industry is facing extinction.  Dairy farmers, pig farms and fruit estates are all facing illegal invasion and disruption of activity.  The Police simply respond to appeals for help by saying that they cannot help because “it is political”.

Our retail chains are empty, many stores are closed, the wholesalers are no longer functional and industry is running at 10 per cent of capacity.  Power supplies are down to about half of demand, fuel is in short supply and spare parts are unobtainable.  All basic foods are virtually only available in the parallel market at very high prices.  Although government schools have opened their doors and the children have gone to school - no teachers are at work. The universities will not open their doors this term - the final term before vital exams.  Business cannot fix prices or salaries - their normal activities are simply frozen in their tracks.

In the midst of this chaos Mugabe went on a 10 day spree to New York to make a speech.  The cost of a 20 minute opportunity to denigrate the leading nations in the world, the very people who have fed his population for 8 years, was the cost of taking a Boeing 767 to New York and back via Egypt. The 54 member delegation must have cost at least US$2 million in allowances and expenses while there.

Then on return he wastes another week with no action on the formation of a new government - now 3 weeks since the SADC facilitated deal with the MDC was signed.  And remember we have not had a proper government since the 29th March - nearly 7 months.  Since Parliament was convened several weeks ago, we have had no government at all.  When confronted with the need to make a decision on the allocation of Ministerial portfolios, Zanu PF has been frozen in its tracks like a child confronted with a cobra.  Simply not knowing what to do and beginning to realize for the first time that the end of the road is in sight for them.

Even though Thabo Mbeki is no longer the power broker he was after his removal from the Presidency in South Africa, they are terrified of his visit to sort out the impasse because they know that their arguments for a disproportionate share of Ministerial portfolios are not defensible.  They cannot hold out for much longer and Mbeki is on his way.

Eddie Cross
Bulawayo, 4 October 2008