Flame Lily News and Views

It is now five weeks since we went into the transitional government and I think the most frequently asked question that I hear is “Why are you still in there”.

That is not an easy question to answer but let me have a go at it here.  Our objectives, as set out in 1999 when we launched the MDC in Harare were quite simple.  We set ourselves the goal of bringing in a new democratic dispensation, which would transform the country into a caring, productive and prosperous nation.  We agreed that this goal would be secured by democratic, peaceful and lawful means.

In 2006 when it became clear that normal democratic action would not secure these goals, we decided to change the road map slightly.  We agreed that we would strive to achieve change through a five-stage process: democratic resistance; negotiations; transitional regime; new constitution and then democratic elections.  In our view we have completed phases one and two and are now engaged in phase three with the pathway to the completion of phase four about to start.

We had no illusions about setting up a transitional regime with Zanu PF and the Mutambara group.  We knew the former were devious and totally opposed to the new arrangements - they had been forced to go this route by the March 2008 defeat at the polls and subsequent international and regional pressure. We also know that Zanu PF was unregenerate, had no ideas other than how to loot and steal and to use their positions in government to perpetuate their hold on power.  We knew it would be a struggle.

So when we thought we had got the best deal we were going to get, we stopped arguing and negotiating and simply went into the new partnership.  The Zanu hardliners were stunned and had to fall back onto their reserve position, which was to form a secret Cabal to replace the JOC and to continue the fight even while they participated in the new government.  So they sought to control key centers of power - the security ministries, the Reserve Bank, the Ministry of Justice and the Attorney Generals Office and the Public Service Commission.  Outside of these immediate structures they set up control and communication systems in the Police, the Judiciary, the Army and in many other key areas of civic life.

They carefully manipulated the whole system to ensure that all the Parastatals and State Controlled enterprises were controlled by Zanu PF elements - this was to ensure flows of resources and the use of patronage to maintain political controls.  Once the new administration was in place they set about trying to limit its effectiveness and control and its degree of influence.  The spat between Webster Shamu and Nelson Chamisa over the control of Tel One and Net One - both substantial cash cows, was and is about this.  The continuing battle to maintain their total control over the governors, permanent secretaries and key posts is all about this secret war.

The abductions, arbitrary arrests and the unsubstantiated allegations of treason, guerilla activities including recruitment and training in Botswana, are all about this.  The farm invasions and the theft of private property and the flaunting of the rule of law as a political weapon of control, is all about this.  Zanu PF has no interest whatsoever in “fixing” the problems of Zimbabwe.  They know that, come what may, the international community (mainly the USA and Europe) will feed the people and thus prevent the humanitarian crisis from spilling over into instability and violence.

They feel confident they can subsist on what is left of the economy and maintain their lavish lifestyles.  They also feel confident that they can control the process leading up to any future elections and in the process regain control of government.  In all of this, President, Mugabe, is an essential stage prop - and will be disposed of as soon as the power base of Zanu PF is secured and alternative leadership established.

The past five weeks say it all.  Where the MDC has control - health, education and finance, substantial, even dramatic progress has been made. Where Zanu PF has control there has either been little progress or we have regressed - the media, the Judiciary and the rule of law, agriculture and land reform.  Only the Reserve Bank has been neutralized as a center of power - the Ministry of Finance has cut off its funding and restricted its activities and influence.  This is hurting the flow of resources to the clandestine Cabal of criminals in Zanu PF but they are developing alternative sources of funds and using their accumulated resources to support their activities.

Whoever imagined that this was going to be anything but a struggle, was deceiving themselves.  We knew that from day one.  But this process is the only one in town if you reject, as we have, any thought of an armed struggle to eliminate and defeat this tyranny.  Tyrants do not give up power without a fight and we are no different except that we chose not to use armed conflict to change the situation in Zimbabwe.  This is the toughest route.  It is the best for the country and is the only principled way to achieve change by peaceful, democratic and legal means.

So we see ourselves doing the best that we can in the circumstances.  We are pursuing three goals for this phase: stabilise the situation and try to restore some semblance of decency to the way people live; write a new national constitution which reflects the popular will and will lay the foundations for a new society; and prepare for the next elections by rebuilding the MDC as a political party; and keeping the people informed of what is happening and why there is little progress in some sectors.

I think we can do all of these three things while we fight to make the transitional government work.  If we can hold onto the beachhead where we landed in this invasion, we will be halfway there.  If we can actually make progress during the drive inland, then we can do what we have to do to ensure V Day in 2011.  Perhaps then and only then will we be able to create the Zimbabwe we all want.  Abandoning the beachhead is just what the criminal Cabal wants, we are not going to give it to them.  We are their worst nightmare, we will not quit, and we will not give up the fight until we have secured our goal of a free, democratic and just State.

I am reminded of what Habakkuk wrote 2600 years ago in the Middle East.  He said: “Woe to him who piles up stolen goods, Woe to him who makes himself wealthy by extortion.  Woe to him who builds his realm by unjust gain, who have plotted to ruin many lives.  Woe to him who builds a city by bloodshed.”
To these Habakkuk promises, “Your debtors will suddenly arise and make you tremble, then you will become their victim.”
As for us Habakkuk states, “Though it linger, wait for it, it will certainly come and will not delay.  I heard and my heart pounded, decay crept into my bones, yet I will wait for the day of calamity to come upon the nation invading us.  The Lord is my strength, he makes my feet like the feet of a deer and enables me to go on the heights.”

Eddie Cross
Bulawayo, 29th March 2009

Progress Report by Eddie Cross

MDC has been inside the tent for 10 days - it was only Friday the week before last when the Ministers were finally sworn in and they started work last Monday.  By now they have found their new cars (that did not take long!) and their offices - some do not even now have a permanent office or support staff, but they are operating.

As is to be expected, some of the Ministers hit the ground running, others were more hesitant and unsure of themselves.  Some mistakes have been made and some progress achieved - not as much as we may have wanted, but some. Certainly the atmosphere has improved a bit although Mugabe does his best to knock us all down from time to time.

There have been some notable achievements in this short space of time.  The Ministry of Finance has affected some reforms and the public service has received hard currency allowances.  More will be paid this week.  Teachers are back at work and I think most medical establishments are also working - to varying degrees, but they are open.  Food supplies in the commercial markets are more or less in free supply and as a result prices have started to decline - some by a significant margin.

In areas receiving food aid there has been a notable reduction in political interference and a sharp increase in food distribution.  In fact in February a remarkable 75 per cent of the total population will have received food from the aid agencies.  I think this is the highest percentage of a national population in receipt of food aid anywhere and at any time - not even Ethiopia during the famine in that country, reached this level of need across the whole country.

There has been a serious explosion at the only functioning fertilizer plant in the country at Sable Chemicals - this uses 30 per cent of our national power consumption and as a result we have had no power cuts for a week.  It’s not because the MDC Minister concerned has waved a magic wand - it’s just that we have more electricity to go around now that the plant is out of action.  I have argued for some time that we should have in fact closed the plant down and used the electricity for other purposes.

Water supplies have gone back to the urban councils where they belong and the Councils are slowly picking up the pieces and trying to rectify matters. Water supplies in Harare are now up to 50 per cent of needs - from 30 per cent and quite a bit of investment is taking place.  Sewerage and solid waste disposal is still a problem and will be for a long time but a team of consultants is visiting all towns and cities to investigate what needs to be done and is making recommendations to the Councils.

We have made some progress in the field of media reform - the Zanu PF Minister has been tasked with this responsibility and as a start, to stop political interference with the State controlled media.  After an encouraging start the State media resumed its delinquent practices and more action is now required - perhaps a bit of surgery.

It is tragic that in those areas where the SADC has responsibility, only very patchy progress has been made.  Although they signed the Global Political Agreement on the 15th September last year and then supported the adoption of constitutional reform in February with the President signing the new legislation into law on the 15th, the old regime shows little sign that they intend either to honor their part of this deal or to work with us on the many urgent problems that need to be addressed.

The National Security Council Act is yet to be signed into law, the basic tenants of the GPA are yet to find expression in the way the State operates and every possible obstacle is being put in the way of progress.  The abductees remain mostly in detention or missing, farm invasions have intensified and segments of the administration are simply refusing to reform or to act when instructed to do so by the new Ministers.

At the same time, a secret criminal cabal has been established - working downwards from the Presidents Office to remote police stations and army barracks.  The paymaster is Gono and the principle role players are senior Cabinet Ministers assisted by a number of senior civil servants.  It is difficult to determine just what they want to achieve but it would appear that they have a number of objectives.

They want to prevent any substantive aid coming to the country in the belief that this will then discredit the MDC in the eyes of the majority.  They want to try and force us to quit the transitional government by holding our people in detention on false charges and allegations, they want to frustrate any new reforms that might usher in a period of media freedom and a more open society.  They want to skew the upcoming debate on the constitution and electoral reform; they want to protect their key players in the administration and to sustain their activities by using state resources.

This past week we saw an open challenge to the authority of the Prime Minister when the administration unilaterally announced the appointment of Permanent Secretaries to head ministries.  Tsvangirai immediately repudiated the action and rescinded the appointments.  A subdued Mugabe conceded they had exceeded their mandate and violated the GPA by doing so.  The Prime Minster will now handle all those appointments properly today.  On Friday we obtained information of an attempt to shift responsibility for the telephone system from the MDC Minister responsible to a Zanu PF Minister.  This was confronted and prevented.

Despite the fact that all farm invasions are illegal after the signing of the GPA and despite instructions to the contrary by the Prime Minister, the President stated that they would continue and the Chief Magistrate ordered the Courts to ignore binding legal agreements in regional Courts.  Farmers with cows in milk, fruit on trees and crops in the ground have been told to leave their farms and homes at 24 hours notice.  If they refused they were jailed and in many cases beaten.  Private assets and homes are being occupied illegally and assets looted.  Clearly this criminal activity will have to be addressed - but who is the policeman in all this - surely SADC and in particular, the South African government.

So here we are - still no action on the key issues that the SADC leadership said should be resolved by the new government - governors are not yet appointed, the Attorney General and the Reserve Bank Governor - all appointed in violation of the GPA have not had their positions reviewed and agreed, the National Security Council is yet to be constituted and begin operations.  The Prime Minister is yet to be allowed to function in accordance with the GPA and the new constitutional provisions.  Illegal detentions have continued and the farm invasions intensified.

On top of all this, regional governments are yet to come to the assistance of the new administration.  When approached for help they disingenuously argued that we “Must settle our debts and they will give us help to do so!”. We owe over US$5 billion to our creditors - have done little or nothing to settle these debts for over 15 years and now - as we take over a bankrupt and devastated State, regional governments sit on their hands!

Eddie Cross
Bulawayo, 2nd March 2009

Eddie Cross, Bulawayo 15 February 2009

I am sorry for the long delay in sending out another of my weeklies, but we have been rather busy to say the least!!  Events here have been dramatic and are moving so fast that it is difficult to keep track if you are not at the centre of things.  A struggle is under way - not with guns, at least not yet! But in every other way this is street fighting - building by building, street by street, close combat between two forces.

On the one side is the secret cabal that has run Zimbabwe since the quasi-military coup in 2002, when the military chiefs stated that they would not salute Mr.  Tsvangirai if he were elected President.  On the other side is a peculiar coalition of forces, led by Mr.  Tsvangirai but including elements of Zanu PF, civil society and even the armed forces themselves.

The Cabal was noticeably absent when the Prime Minister was sworn in - as were a number of other key players, this was not a coincidence.  The Commander of the Air Force has not been seen since the assassination attempt on him in Shamva, the others were all busy making mischief.  The most serious issue remains what role is the State President playing in this drama, if anything.

But however it is described we are seeing a situation where a small group is fighting back and trying to bring about a breakdown of the transitional government which has just been sworn in and on Monday will start to take charge.  The three key elements in this shadowy force are - the Reserve Bank (under Gono), the Ministry of Justice and the Attorney Generals Office and the Military and Police.  Gono is the paymaster and is funding this fight back using the very considerable resources at his command, the Ministry of Justice - or elements in the Ministry, is providing the “legal” justification and the armed forces, including senior elements in the Police, are executing the strategy and providing the muscle.

The legal ruse is the allegation - now totally discredited, that elements of the MDC are involved in “treason” in that they planned the violent over throw of the State.  In fact the real situation is that it is the armed forces chiefs themselves who are trying to do so and in so doing are committing treason against the State.  For, no matter how you construct the transitional government, Zimbabwe now has a democratically elected government that is constitutional and legitimate.  Any attempt therefore, to over throw the State by force, is an act of treason.

This fight is most clearly illustrated by the detention of Roy Bennett at Charles Prince Airport yesterday.  Roy was hauled off the plane, bundled into a car and then driven at high speed to Mutare.  The vehicles in which he was transported were followed by volunteers so that he could not just disappear in the same way that 42 others have in recent weeks.

When the news reached the Prime Minister he was already in consultation with regional leaders on another crisis regarding the appointment of Zanu PF Ministers and the matter was discussed.  Senior Zanu PF Ministers agreed to order that Roy be released.  The President of South Africa left the country thinking that this had been done and a major diplomatic and political crisis (among many) averted.  It was not so, whether or not such an order was given, the Police and the CIO did not release Roy, instead they announced he was to be charged with treason!

If the Ministers of State Security and Home Affairs did give the order for his release, then the government agencies that are accountable to them did not obey the order.  If they did not give the order, they lied to the South African President and the Prime Minister and are part of, what is, in effect, a military coup.  The treatment of the 42 other abductees is further evidence of this defiance of the new order.  They were clearly abducted illegally, held illegally in various State institutions, finally brought to Court and charged with various crimes involving absurd allegations, and denied bail.  A number are still missing and are unaccounted for.

In one of his first actions, the Prime Minister visited them in the High Security Prison outside Harare and instructed that 4 be taken immediately to hospital for treatment.  Two of the four, including Jestina Mukoko are very ill with life threatening symptoms, they were then taken to hospital and in the evening, they were taken by force from the hospital back to prison in clear defiance of the Prime Ministers instructions.

Many other battles are being fought - the coup plotters have people in key places all over government and they are clearly working together.  The question is can they win this struggle.  I do not think so.  They are up against the majority of the people, a democratically elected government negotiated with the support of the entire region and they must now fight to defend their positions from within government where they no longer have legal and political control.  The key player to watch in this struggle is Gono.  If he goes, then the flow of resources (except for illegal resources such as gold and diamond sales) will dry up and they will not be able to sustain their fight.  If he stays, the new government will be seriously weakened, as they cannot then secure the backing and support of important financial players who simply will not work with the Bank whilst he is still in charge.

While this is going on the looting of State assets and resources continue. Right now they are trying to do a deal with a local firm to sell Tel One - a major cell phone operator that is State owned, for US$200 million, which they want to use to support US dollar denominated vouchers to pay the Civil Service with, so that they can at least buy food.  The Prime Minister has instead instructed that the Civil Service be paid in hard currency - Chinamasa defied the Prime Minister last week and insisted they go ahead with the deal even though after Friday he was no longer Minister of Finance.

As for me?  The Prime Minister announced on Monday that I was his choice for Minister of State Enterprise and then on Friday the post was switched to a friend and colleague, Sam Nkomo.  A victim of the present constitutional dispensation where Ministers must be Members of Parliament and carry over into their government posts, their political constituency.  In the American system, the positions of Secretaries of State are selected from outside the political system and the President can - as is the case with the Obama government, select from his whole society, the people to run his government. Under the Westminster system no such clear distinction exists between the executive and Parliament.

The American system has the advantage that Ministers (the Secretaries) are selected not only for their political influence and experience but also for their technical background and experience.  They essentially are managers of the Ministries they run.  Under our system the process is much more political and the PM has to balance contending interests politically.  In my case, I was a victim of the process.  I am sorry - I would have loved to have had the chance to help make this deal work and to get whatever piece of government I was responsible for, functioning again.  But it is not to be and its back to making my own living and working in Parliament to supervise government and look after the public interest.

Nothing could illustrate the failure of African leadership more clearly than the farce that took place in Harare this weekend.  Following the debacle last week when Morgan Tsvangirai refused to travel on an emergency travel document restricted to Swaziland, the SADC organ on politics and security convened in Harare this Monday.  It was attended by the Presidents of South Africa and Mozambique as well as the Prime Minister of Swaziland and an official from Angola.

They know exactly what the problem is - in March the MDC beat Zanu PF in a closely contested election and its leader, Morgan Tsvangirai beat Mugabe by a wide margin.  These leaders know that Morgan got more than 50 per cent of the vote - I understand his actual vote was 54 per cent but after five weeks of procrastination and desperate efforts to falsify the poll the Junta was forced to admit that Mugabe had been beaten but that Tsvangirai had received less than 50 per cent and would have to face a run off.

The South Africans know full well that the real result was a clear victory for MDC and a humiliation for Mugabe, but went along with the charade and allowed the run off to take place.  What followed was three months of intense political violence unleashed on the population by 100 000 youth militia under military leadership in over 2000 camps spread throughout the country.

When finally it became apparent that any attempt by the MDC to monitor the election would be faced with violence and even the murder of MDC polling agents, the MDC decided to pull out of the contest.  Zanu PF went ahead and in complete contrast to the March election, Mugabe was declared the winner in 48 hours and sworn in, in unseemly haste.

The African observer missions then turned Zanu’s world upside down by declaring that the election had “not been a reflection of the people’s will” and stating that Mugabe had not been elected President.  Battered and bruised, the MDC and the hapless electorate picked themselves up and were then faced with a demand by SADC leaders that they “resume” the talks with Zanu PF under the mediation of Thabo Mbeki.

Mbeki picked up from where his previous mediation had left off, as if nothing had happened in the interim.  We are now four months down the road on that new initiative and having agreed and signed a power sharing agreement on the 15th September; we are still trying to get the deal implemented.  In signing the deal, the MDC massively compromised its rights as the Party that had won the elections outright in March.

Mugabe, who by all accounts lost the election in March and certainly has no legal or democratic justification to call himself President, continues to act as if he had won the election and Hansard still lists all Zanu PF ministers and Deputy Ministers as Ministers of Government.  No doubt they are still on their full salaries and perks even though a number of them were defeated by MDC in the election in March and all of them were stood down as Ministers when Parliament was sworn in a few weeks ago.

Just to compound this situation Mugabe is treated as a State President by SADC and given full political and diplomatic recognition.  The so called “Global Agreement” provides for a clear separation of powers between the Prime Minister and the President and also sets out in precise terms how the different arms of government are expected to work together.

Only an idiot could interpret the agreement as meaning that Zanu PF is still in charge and MDC is the junior partner, It is self evident that the allocation of ministerial portfolios should be divided equitably, So when, after weeks of pointless argument Zanu PF published an allocation of Ministerial portfolios that gave Zanu PF complete control of the security machinery of the state as well as all resource ministries and left the rest to the MDC, it was a step too far.

That brought the region back into the process and gave us the hope that the regional leadership would recognise the illogical and unacceptable nature os such an allocation and impose a solution on the local players that made sense.  First it was Mbeki and he made a hash of things - actually endorsing the Zanu PF allocation of posts!  Then came the Troika and the aborted meeting in Swaziland.

Morgan had raised the issue of his passport with the negotiators and when he was issued with a Emergency Travel Document with a single destination restriction he refused to travel.  In fact the issue goes far beyond just the question of withholding his travel documents (the passport has been ready for weeks and is sitting in the desk of the Registrar General) it was just the latest of a series of incidents that show that the Junta in Harare has no intention of allowing the new government to be formed.

They are continuing to restrict and interfere with food distribution by the international community.  They have retained tight control over commercial food distribution.  The security forces continue to attack any attempts by civil society to support the negotiation process and the media is as warped and restricted as ever.  There has been no attempt to implement the “Global Agreement” in any form up to now.

When Morgan Tsvangirai failed to attend the Troika meeting it was aborted and reorganised for Harare a week later.  In Harare the key player was always going to be the new President of South Africa, Mr.  Motlanthe.  This was his first real test when it comes to foreign affairs and for most of us it seemed completely logical that he would step up to the plate and smash a home run.

But no - after 13 hours of intense “negotiations” they came out of the closet and issued a statement that did not change one single element in the situation.  The issue would go a full meeting of SADC Heads of State in two weeks time.  What an even larger group of hopeless leaders will do is difficult to imagine.  The key player remains Motlanthe, he alone has the power and influence to force a resolution and it just that that is required.
The Junta will never give up power without the use of force in whatever form and if that is not going to come from the streets, it has to come diplomatically behind closed doors.

In 1976 that pressure came from the South Africans in support of an initiative by the American Secretary of State, in 1979 it was pressure from Mozambique, Zambia and Tanzania.  The only question now is who will do the necessary in 2008?

While this charade is being played out, southern Africa burns.  In the midst of the global financial crisis, we look indecisive and ineffective.  By failing to take crucial decisions on issues such as inter Party violence in South Africa and the resolution of the crisis in Zimbabwe - all within our own clear competence, we are failing our respective countries, the region and our people’s best interests.

It was up to the Secretary General of the United Nations to spell out what was needed.  He called for an equitable allocation of Ministerial portfolios and the formation of a new government in Harare as soon as possible.  He said that only such a move would bring the political and economic crisis under control.  He is right, are our leaders up to it this time?  Failure is just that would be “too ghastly to contemplate”.

Eddie Cross
Bulawayo, 28th October 2008

If this were a John Wayne movie we would be about to see the good guy walk down the main street against the bad guys who were going to confront him and to try to ambush him from the side streets and buildings.  Morgan has agreed to attend the SADC summit on Monday and the stakes could not be higher.

It has puzzled us as to why the bad guys had delayed this confrontation.  We now know that they had hoped to be able to spring a surprise election on the MDC rather than face the prospect of their man (Mugabe) having to face our man (Tsvangirai) in direct combat on the street.  A shadowy group, listed in a fascinating article by Charamba in last weekends Herald newspaper, has been attempting to engineer a snap election using the mechanism that was put in place for the June run off that ended so disastrously for Zanu PF.  More than most commentators, they had recognised the dangers to them of the SADC brokered agreement.

This attempt spluttered out when they realised that the new South African government would not tolerate that option - it was only one better than the option of a military coup and in regional terms simply not acceptable.  While they quibbled and played for time, what they did not appreciate was that the ship on which they were standing was in fact sinking.  The consequences of their own actions are destroying the very foundations of the system on which they rely for continued power and sustenance.

The most obvious symptom of this process is the rapid collapse of the Zimbabwe currency.  Issued just three months ago at parity with the Rand and 7 to 1 with the US dollar, yesterday it traded at billions to one US dollar and there seemed to be no bottom to the pit in which it was sinking.  It has become virtually impossible to trade in the local currency and I would not be surprised if people simply stop trading.

There are signs that the South Africans are at last prepared to insist on a deal on Monday.  The reasons are many but in my view the following are the principle elements in this change of heart.

The first, and possibly the most important is the change of leadership in South Africa.  Mbeki has been consigned to a retirement home and the new leadership - Kegalema Motlanthe and Jacob Zuma are hardly friends of Robert Mugabe.  The new President of South Africa was the leader of a Cosatu delegation to Zimbabwe that was hauled off a South African airplane about three years ago, pushed into a minibus and driven to the Beitbridge border post where they were deported and had to be collected by a car sent up from Johannesburg.

Last week Zuma and Motlanthe both made statements calling for a speedy resolution of the Zimbabwe crisis by the completion of the process of forming a new government.  South Africa is the only country in the world with the power to tell Mugabe what he may or may not do.  If they decide that the time has come for a solution, a solution will be found.  They are probably quite happy that such a solution was not secured under Mbeki’s watch as the two ANC groups are now engaged in their own struggle in South Africa.

The second reason is one that has been there for a long time, but has been made more relevant and pressing by recent events.  It is the regional implications of the economic collapse in Zimbabwe.

Of all the consequences of this collapse, the one most directly affecting the South African government are the tens of thousands of people who are pouring over the border into the crowded squatter camps that surround every City.  It is visible on every street corner and every person living in South Africa pays a price for this unwanted invasion.  Given the present situation in Zimbabwe, if a deal is not reached on Monday the stream of people fleeing to South Africa will become a floodtide that could simply swamp their delicate democracy.

The next is the impact on regional business sentiment and international confidence in African leadership and enterprise.  The Rand fell to 12 to 1 yesterday - losing over half its value in a few days.  The stock market has also lost half its value over the past 3 months.  I know the reasons for this are the international credit crunch and its consequences but it does not help to be seen in a region of possible political and economic instability on top of everything else.  A deal in Zimbabwe might actually help the South Africans to defend themselves against the rising tide of global recession that now seems unstoppable.

Adding to this situation is the growing evidence of the criminal nature of the regime in Zimbabwe.  We are engaged in every possible activity of a criminal nature in the region.  Nothing illustrates that more than the illegal diamond trade.  In recent weeks the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe has been offloading raw diamonds on the international market in large quantities, these carry false certificates of origin and are from Angola, the Congo and the newly discovered Maranke diamond fields in eastern Zimbabwe.  The proceeds of this trade are not being returned to Zimbabwe and add to the increasing flow of funds being siphoned out of the country by a frightened oligarchy that now knows their days are numbered.  This illicit trade constitutes a threat to both South African and Botswana interests as it violates the Kimberly Process.

Back home, the regime has paid the civil service for the month of October.  I understand the Police were paid Z$100 000.  When you know that it will take days to draw that kind of money out of the Bank and that bread is now Z$50 000 a loaf and the real value of their salaries is less than 0,000007 of a US cent, you can understand why the regime cannot rely on the military or the police for protection.  Prices are doubling daily now and no one is able to survive on local currency or a salary.

So Monday may be “D” day - decision time for us and disaster time for them. If a deal is done and we get a new government it will take a few days to appoint ministers and then get going but at least then we will at last be able to tackle the many urgent problems that we have inherited from 28 years of tyrannical and corrupt rule.

Eddie Cross
Bulawayo, 25th October 2008

Today I went from one meeting to another using the main streets in Harare - it was pure chaos.  The City had no electricity, the traffic lights at all intersections were not working and the traffic was gridlocked.  The Police were nowhere to be seen and even as we sat in the traffic a police car drove past - ramped the pavement and drove though the intersection paying no attention to what was going on around them.

At the Reserve Bank it was the same.  They are printing money and creating money in other forms so fast that the inflation rate is no longer calculable.  What we do know is that the RTGS rate - that is the rate at which foreign exchange is exchanged in the open market for money transferred by electronic means is moving by the hour.  At the beginning of August it was 7 to 1 against the US dollar (after we dropped 9 zeros [actually 10]) and yesterday it was 2 000 000 to 1.  Quite a change in 8 weeks!  At this rate it will be no less than 10 million to one by next weekend.

Desperate people are queuing for days at the banks and other financial houses to try and get their money out of the system so that they can spend it before it literally melts to nothing.  In Gweru last week the main street was almost closed by crowds at ATM’s and banks.  In Harare literally thousands of people jam every cash outlet.  The maximum withdrawal by an individual is $20 000 a day worth US$ 0,001 cents.

The Reserve Bank, faced with the escalating consequences of their own ineptitude are now printing money on plain local bond paper with no security features.  The mafia are having a field day and so many counterfeit notes are circulating that people are refusing the new notes.  Instead of adopting a carefully crafted plan to overcome these problems and to correct the fundamentals that are driving the system towards collapse, the Governor today simply closed down the RTGS system and I understand even the inter bank system; rendering the only alternative window for payments impassable.

It is illegal to trade in hard currency - you can go to jail for this if you try, it is illegal to change money on the street, you cannot charge a market price for what you sell unless you are willing to risk intervention or worse.  Even today there were reports of the government taking action against retailers who were “over charging”.  Business is unable to pay their staff in cash, they pay them by bank transfer and then watch as half their work force is absent all day standing in queues.

Non cash forms of payments are rampant - barter is common, the use of fuel coupons with a face value of about US$30 each is also common tender.  The BBC carried a story this week of an auction in Harare where the bids were all expressed in coupons.  Most firms are now being forced to sell their goods and services in hard currency - Rand or US dollars even though it is illegal.

Businesses do not bank the money because the Reserve Bank keeps a close watch on any foreign exchange balances in the Banks and simply expropriates them.  Crediting the owner of these accounts with local currency at a ridiculous rate of exchange and then using the flow of hard currency to support the life styles of the small elite that is still in charge.  At these rates of exchange a luxury, top of the range car costs less than the price of a local cigarette.

Here we are, 4 weeks away from the start of the wet season and we have 2 per cent of our fertilizer requirements in stock.  All other inputs are virtually unobtainable.  The Reserve Bank is handing out expensive farm equipment to Zanu PF fat cats like sweets to a kindergarden, but they cannot provide fuel or seed or fertilizer or chemicals.  It’s madness.

Remaining farmers - black and white are being evicted from their farms by Zanu PF heavies such as a Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank and what is left of the once world class tobacco industry is facing extinction.  Dairy farmers, pig farms and fruit estates are all facing illegal invasion and disruption of activity.  The Police simply respond to appeals for help by saying that they cannot help because “it is political”.

Our retail chains are empty, many stores are closed, the wholesalers are no longer functional and industry is running at 10 per cent of capacity.  Power supplies are down to about half of demand, fuel is in short supply and spare parts are unobtainable.  All basic foods are virtually only available in the parallel market at very high prices.  Although government schools have opened their doors and the children have gone to school - no teachers are at work. The universities will not open their doors this term - the final term before vital exams.  Business cannot fix prices or salaries - their normal activities are simply frozen in their tracks.

In the midst of this chaos Mugabe went on a 10 day spree to New York to make a speech.  The cost of a 20 minute opportunity to denigrate the leading nations in the world, the very people who have fed his population for 8 years, was the cost of taking a Boeing 767 to New York and back via Egypt. The 54 member delegation must have cost at least US$2 million in allowances and expenses while there.

Then on return he wastes another week with no action on the formation of a new government - now 3 weeks since the SADC facilitated deal with the MDC was signed.  And remember we have not had a proper government since the 29th March - nearly 7 months.  Since Parliament was convened several weeks ago, we have had no government at all.  When confronted with the need to make a decision on the allocation of Ministerial portfolios, Zanu PF has been frozen in its tracks like a child confronted with a cobra.  Simply not knowing what to do and beginning to realize for the first time that the end of the road is in sight for them.

Even though Thabo Mbeki is no longer the power broker he was after his removal from the Presidency in South Africa, they are terrified of his visit to sort out the impasse because they know that their arguments for a disproportionate share of Ministerial portfolios are not defensible.  They cannot hold out for much longer and Mbeki is on his way.

Eddie Cross
Bulawayo, 4 October 2008

In a recent meeting with diplomats, faced with serious concerns about the workability of the arrangements negotiated with Zanu PF, Morgan Tsvangirai laughingly said “this new government is like a union between a donkey and a horse, it could produce a mule - not very pretty, but functional”.  One of the diplomats responded that mules are sterile - they cannot reproduce themselves.  That is probably just as well!

Because the deal has not yet been even consummated, we do not have the beginnings, so no progress.  I understand that Mr.  Mugabe came back from his trip to the UN General Assembly in New York this morning.  It had been rumored that he was not due in until next Friday; so that is progress.  Now we need to get things moving so that a new government can be sworn by next weekend and we can finally start work.

The one thing that observers are generally failing to see in this situation is that the swearing in of a new Cabinet and government will in fact signal the end of the Zanu PF Junta.  Over the past ten years we have seen a gradual shift from Cabinet government to rule by a civilian/military junta.  This Junta remains firmly in charge today and is working at fever pitch to sweep their tracks and secure a last minute meal at the nations expense.  I think they have now accepted that their time in control is nearly over and that the SADC process has gone too far to be reversed.

Once a Cabinet is sworn in and Morgan Tsvangirai becomes Prime Minister with responsibility for supervising and managing all government Ministries, we will again be governed by a more conventional government system - power and control will shift from the Junta to the Cabinet where it actually belongs.

The effectiveness of the new arrangements will then depend on our ability to mould the new team into a cohesive whole that will work together to put the country back onto its feet.  Given our recent history, that will not be easy - but at the same time its not impossible.  We have many advantages over other States that have had to try and bring their countries back into the mainstream of development after conflict and decline.  We have not been swept by violence and armed insurrection.  Our armed forces, remain generally disciplined and professional, they will take orders.  Our economy is in tatters and dangerously close to complete collapse, but the fundamentals are all there.

If we finally get this deal consummated, MDC will have very largely achieved what it set out to achieve 9 years ago - a peaceful, legal and democratic transfer of power to a new government that can effect fundamental change in the way our affairs are run.  Sure we have had to compromise and share power with Zanu PF and the transfer has only come about because our neighbors have helped us hammer out a deal that enables us to work together during the transition, but once the new team is in place and starts work, we can say that power is once more in democratic hands and has been wrested from a military dominated Junta that was destroying our country.

This past week we have been trying to meet all stakeholders in an effort to try and find out what are the fundamental problems and concerns of the people who make things happen in Zimbabwe.  A team led by the Prime Minister designate has met the food industry, the bankers, the mining industry leadership and the combined farmers unions.  It is not a pretty picture.

The food people told us they have insufficient stocks to feed the country, that the capacity to finance and physically import the quantities needed to prevent starvation and hardship were just not available.  Industrialists told us they were working at 10 per cent of their capacity and could not fund the necessary recovery in their activity if the wider economy was stabilized and returned to growth.  The miners said that three quarters of all gold mines were closed and overall the industry was operating at 20 per cent of capacity.  The bankers said they feared for their staff as crowds of people gathered at all banking halls and ATM’s in a desperate effort to gain access to their funds as inflation, now at over a billion per cent per annum, simply destroyed their savings and salaries while they stood in queues.

Farmers pleaded for security on their farms and the return of the rule of law and said that with 4 weeks to go to the annual planting season, only 5 per cent of the necessary inputs for the new crop were in place.  They told us that if nothing was done about this, yet another year of shortages and hunger would be inevitable in 2009 with no chance of relief until 2010.  A delegation from the cities told us that water shortages were now critical - that public health and sanitation were in jeopardy throughout the country. Teachers told us that virtually no real teaching was going on in schools and that many students would simply have to repeat the year to get back on track.

Despite the daunting and stark conditions confronting all sectors of our economy and society we were encouraged as, sector by sector, leadership pledged themselves to help us get out of this mess as quickly as possible. Just yesterday I was with a team who were working on what to do in the first 100 days of the new administration.  How to improve services and stabilise the economy.  How to get Zimbabwe working again.

Can we do it?  Yes we can!  Mules may not be pretty but they can work and work effectively.  But we have to demonstrate that before a skeptical and wary world.  We also have to try and meet the needs and aspirations of the millions of our people who have patiently supported us and fought with us in what has been a principled and non-violent democratic struggle to regain our freedoms.  We are nearly there.

Eddie Cross Bulawayo,
28th September 2008

Nine years to the day since I stood with Morgan Tsvangirai, Gibson Sibanda, Tendai Biti, Welshman Ncube and many other patriots on the 11th September 1999 at Rufaro Stadium to launch the MDC a deal has been agreed in Harare tonight to bring to an end 28 years of brutal Zanu PF rule.

The bare bones of the deal are as follows.  Constitutional amendment 19 will shortly be moved in Parliament.  It will enable to the setting up of an inclusive Government which in turn will initiate an all inclusive process of Constitutional reform (which will include civil society).  That process will last 18 months by which time a new democratic Constitution must be implemented, which will also include a time frame for new elections at some point to be conducted in terms of the new Constitution.

The inclusive Government will have Robert Mugabe as President with greatly reduced powers to those he enjoys today.  There will be two, largely ceremonial, Vice Presidents from Zanu PF.  Morgan Tsvangirai will be Prime Minister.  Although he does not have absolute power he does have substantial power.  For example he will advise Mugabe on all future appointments including Judges, Ambassadors and the like.  There will be two Deputy Prime Ministers, one from MDC T and one from MDC M.

There will be a slightly cumbersome arrangement for conducting Government business which is the essence of the compromise agreed to following the impasse of the last 4 weeks.  Cabinet will be chaired by Mugabe; Tsvangirai will be the vice Chair.  Then there will be a Council of Ministers chaired by Tsvangirai which will supervise the work of Cabinet.

The Cabinet will largely reflect the votes cast for the different parties in the March election in which Zanu PF got the most votes (if not the most seats), followed by the MDC T and MDC M.  In a 31 person Cabinet Zanu PF will have 15 seats, MDC T 13 and MDC M 3.  There will be 8, 6 and 1 Deputy Ministers respectively.  Accordingly if the two MDC factions work together, which they must in the national interest, they will enjoy a majority in Cabinet.

This is undoubtedly historic but we still have a long and treacherous road to travel.  Even had we in the combined MDC obtained total control the challenges are immense.  The grave humanitarian and economic crises are enough to test any Government.  The new Cabinet that will have to address these challenges is composed of protagonists - virtually all of the Cabinet Ministers to be appointed by the MDC T and M have at some stage in the last 9 years been brutalized on the instructions of those they will now have to work with.  Zimbabwe remains highly polarised and it will take statesmanship on all sides to make this work.

But work this must.  Zimbabwe is a great country with a tremendous future and it can and will get through to a new dawn of freedom.  The night is not over yet but as the great poet Arthur Hugh Clough wrote:

“In front the sun climbs slow, how slowly, But westward look , the land is bright”.

Winston Churchill said after the Battle of Egypt on the 10 November 1942 the following memorable words:

“Now is not the end.  It is not even the beginning of the end.  But it is perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

Those words are apt today.  This has been a long hard struggle and there have been many casualties.  It is not over yet - there are many battles which still lie ahead - but I am confident that this agreement, imperfect as it is, marks a significant step forward and will ultimately yield a new, democratic, vibrant jewel in Africa - our great Zimbabwe!

God bless you all and God bless Zimbabwe.

Senator David Coltart

Bulawayo
11th September 2008

Today the new Zimbabwe currency devalued to one South African cent.  Issued just a month ago at parity with the Rand, it was a desperate move by the regime in Harare to try and meet the demand for cash in an environment where the local currency is halving in values every week or less.
Even though we have no less than five sets of currency in circulation - the new notes, the bearer bonds, the agric cheques and two different sets of coinage, there is still a huge shortage of local currency.  Businesses with cash are selling their surplus on the market at up to a 50 per cent premium.
Bankers and the Reserve Bank are also selling cash and buying foreign exchange on the parallel market.
In fact to the uninitiated the situation here can be quite bewildering - just take today for example.  The US dollar was trading at Z$1334 per dollar at the so-called “Old Mutual Rate”.  The “RTGS” rate was about Z$850 to 1. The street rate was Z$200 to 1.  The interbank rate was slightly higher and the “official rate” was Z$0,0000003 of a local dollar to one US dollar.
Then today we tried to buy some fabric from a local firm - 100 per cent cotton, locally manufactured and dyed - they quoted me Z$6060 per Metre or US3,10 - at that rate the exchange rate was 1955 to one US dollar.  That is 10 times the street rate.
So if I was able to get an allocation of foreign exchange from the Reserve Bank at the “Official” rate, US$100 000 would cost me 30 Zimbabwean cents.
If I sold the US$100 000 on the local market at the RTGS rate I would earn Z$85 million.  If I then bought US dollars on the free market in Zimbabwe I would be able to buy US$425 000.  This is what we call “Gononomics”.
But if you were a worker in a clothing factory, your weekly wage would be about Z$200 - and a 300 mls Coke would cost you Z$1 800 - you would have to work for 9 weeks to buy a cold coke!
Last month the militias were paid Z$3 trillion - that is 30 cents in the new currency.  Worth a fortune in the hands of Grace Mugabe but not worth a dime in the markets in which they have to live.  They are going to have to print currency and “create” currency through the Reserve Bank by simply issuing cheques or even just a credit for an account in order to pay the army - but the army will not be able to get hard cash and therefore cannot spend the money they get until it is worthless.
How you function in such a crazy environment I simply do not know.
Eddie Cross
Bulawayo, 1st September 2008

I think the most significant contribution to the Zimbabwe debate came from a South Africa ANC stalwart, Kamal, last week.  In a speech delivered in South Africa, he stated that the democrats who have struggled so long to secure democratic rights and practices in Zimbabwe and who clearly won the last election despite irregularities, must not be abandoned.  He called on other countries, including his own, to support the struggle for democracy in Zimbabwe.

A careful review of all that has gone on in the past 10 days will show that Mr.  Mbeki constructed a trap for Morgan Tsvangirai, working in the final throws of the negotiations with both Mugabe and Mutambara in the process.  On Tuesday last week Morgan walked into the final negotiating session in Harare and was presented with an agreement that had already been approved by both Mugabe and Mutambara.  He was asked to sign and was told that the deal offered an end to the long nightmare of struggle and suffering for himself, his family and his country.

He asked for time out to discuss it with his colleagues and after a period brought back to the gathering a counter proposal.  The changes were small but made all the difference.  In the first document Mbeki and the others offered Tsvangirai the post of Prime Minister, but to be appointed by the President (Mugabe) and not allowed to chair cabinet - taking responsibility for all the ministries that Mugabe could not give a damn about - finance, education, health, labour and social welfare.  It not only recognised Mugabe’s election on the 27th June under appalling conditions but also left him in power with all his current privileges and rights.  MDC would hold 13 of a 31-seat cabinet; Mutambara and Welshman Ncube, both heavily defeated in the March
29th election would be rewarded with non-elected posts and a significant role.

The MDC counter proposal was totally consistent with the Parties position from day one.  It said that the results of the March 29th election had to be respected in all aspects.  That Parliament should appoint both the President and the Prime Minister.  It established a system that allowed Mugabe to remain as President but with diminished power and responsibility.  He would still be Commander in Chief of the Armed forces.  The Prime Minister would have all the powers and responsibilities that are normally associated with such a post in other countries.

The trap lay in what Mugabe then expected to happen; he had always known that this was the key issue and that the MDC would never accept such a proposal.  So he carefully plotted with Mutambara to go for a deal that excluded Tsvangirai and his Party, forming a Government with the Mutambara faction of the MDC based on the deal negotiated over the past 18 months with both the MDC groups but with the variation outlined above.

When the MDC rejected the deal and demanded that it be amended to reflect the changes suggested, they fully expected Mbeki to go along with the subterfuge.  In fact he did not immediately do so - he advised them that a deal that was not signed by Tsvangirai would have little weight in international and African circles and that he would take the final areas of dispute to the SADC for arbitration.

First stop in that process was Angola, “that haven of democratic process” that is yet to hold an election for its own leadership.  Angola held the Chair of the SADC organ on Security and Politics.  Then he returned to South Africa to prepare for the SADC summit due to take place in Johannesburg that weekend.

At the summit the South Africans gave all participants a full written report on the discussions that had taken place since March 2007.  This included the draft constitution crafted in the discussions and signed by all parties at the Kariba meeting in September.  You should know that we, the people of Zimbabwe, who are most affected by all this, have yet to see these same documents.

Mr.  Mbeki, acting as the new Chairman of the SADC and as the official mediator, told the grouping that the agreements reached represented a “power sharing deal” that was fair to all parties and should be signed.  Although the MDC was represented at the meeting by a high powered delegation, they were not allowed to address the leadership of the SADC and Mugabe was allowed to sit in his allotted seat as President of Zimbabwe, even though he has no right to do so and his election in June is not recognised by the great majority of the SADC and other African States.  Only Botswana said they would not attend if he were given recognition.

At the conclusion of the SADC meeting Mugabe had just about all he could have wanted - the majority of the SADC had accepted him as President, they had told the MDC that their refusal to sign the power sharing deal was unreasonable, and left it to a weak and indecisive Mbeki to carry on with his mediation.  Tsvangirai, in a desperate attempt to rescue the talks visited a number of countries in the immediate aftermath and then returned to South Africa.  To no avail.  No substantive help or support has emerged for a final agreement.

Mugabe, encouraged by a call by Mbeki for Parliament to be convened and by the lack luster approach of the SADC leadership, has set about doing just that.  Mutambara has reiterated his stance that the deal is reasonable and declared they are going to cooperate in Parliament.  Zanu and the Mutambara leadership have selected a candidate for Speaker - Paul Temba Nyathi, who will stand for this post on Monday.  Threats have been made against any Mutambara people who might vote against him and for the MDC candidate.

It is a dangerous move - if Mbeki fails to endorse the arrangements then Mugabe and Mutambara are acting alone and without the formal endorsement of the SADC.  If they lose the Speaker battle (and they could) then we are in for a period when they might not be able to pass legislation and budgets to run the government.  They are also running the risk of total alienation from the electorate and if they cannot pay the armed forces at the end of the month (and I cannot see how they can) then they run the risk that the armed forces might take matters into their own hands.

We in the MDC have said since 2000, that we want a peaceful, orderly, legal and democratic transfer of power in Zimbabwe.  We have fought 4 elections on this premise, been subjected to campaigns of terror and abuse on a massive scale, seen hundreds of our leaders murdered and thousands beaten and tortured.  We have been subjected to continuous propaganda, have campaigned under grossly unequal conditions and voted in a system that has been manipulated and distorted by a corrupt and totalitarian regime.

Yet despite all the provocation we have not raised a finger in support of violence.  When our members have demanded a violent response, we have restrained them.  When an armed struggle has been proposed, we have rejected the proposals and repudiated the people who made them.  Despite all of this we won the March 29th election - because we were able to secure minimal improvements in the way they were conducted.  We still believe that 60 per cent of the Zanu seats were won by means of rigging.

Now - at the final hurdle, we are told that we are being unreasonable in demanding recognition for what we are - a Party that has won the right to govern.  We are prepared for the sake of a peaceful transition to work together with Zanu on a transition back to democracy in two years and to share power in the transition even though Zanu does not deserve this.  South Africa will pay a high price for this dereliction of duty when it mattered most.

Eddie Cross
Bulawayo, 23rd August 2008